/Qualification scenarios: India a win away from semifinal spot

Qualification scenarios: India a win away from semifinal spot

ICC CRICKET WORLD CUP, 2019

India are the only team unbeaten so far in the tournament

India are the only team unbeaten so far in the tournament © AFP

With a facile win against West Indies, India – the only unbeaten team so far in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 – are a win away from sealing a spot in the semi-finals. The Caribbean side, meanwhile, joined Afghanistan and South Africa as the three teams to be out of contention for a semi-final berth.

Earlier, Australia became the first team to qualify for the semi-final stage while the hosts find themselves in a spot after their two successive losses. Pakistan, on the other hand, made a strong comeback and are in a better position than they were a week ago.

After 34 matches, here’s the current situation and what teams need to do in order be part of the final four:

Points table (at the end of Match 34):

Teams Mat Won Lost NR Points NRR
Aus 7 6 1 0 12 0.906
Ind 6 5 0 1 11 1.160
NZ 7 5 1 1 11 1.028
Eng 7 4 3 0 8 1.051
Ban 7 3 3 1 7 -0.133
Pak 7 3 3 1 7 -0.976
SL 6 2 2 2 6 -1.119
WI 7 1 5 1 3 -0.320
SA 7 1 5 1 3 -0.324
Afg 7 0 7 0 0 -1.634

India: With five wins and a no-result in six matches, India are sitting pretty at the second spot. A win in one of their three remaining games will assure them a semifinal spot and they are well in contention for a top of the table finish.

New Zealand: Kane Williamson’s side suffered their first defeat in their seventh game against a resurgent Pakistan side. They still have their fate in their own hands – a win in one of their remaining two games is enough for them to go through. Should they lose against both Australia and England (they end with 11 points), they would want at least two of England, Sri Lanka and the winner of Pakistan-Bangladesh game to lose at least one of their remaining games. If that doesn’t happen, they would need India to lose all three of their upcoming fixtures and end on a lower NRR than New Zealand.

England: Sitting comfortably with eight points from their first five games, two untimely defeats since have put England’s advance in jeopardy. They are set to play India and New Zealand and will be through should they win both those matches.

Should England win only one game, then they would need all three of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan to lose at least one of their remaining matches. In such a scenario, Sri Lanka will end with a maximum of ten points but England will pip them on the number of wins (England will have five wins to Sri Lanka’s four) while Pakistan and Bangladesh can end up with a maximum of nine points.

It is mathematically possible for them to go through with eight points i.e; they lose to both India and New Zealand, provided all of the three below scenarios occur:

– Sri Lanka suffer defeat in at least two of their three games left and end on a maximum of eight points

– The game between Pakistan and Bangladesh ends in a stalemate and both lose their other remaining game (Pakistan play Afghanistan next and Bangladesh play India). Then all three sides will finish with eight points and England advance by virtue of more wins (four to three).

Bangladesh: Mashrafe Mortaza’s side have been one of the teams to watch out for in the tournament, landing killer blows to South Africa and West Indies during their journey. If they beat Pakistan and India in their last two games, they end with 11 points and would want one of the three below scenarios to happen.

– Both England and Sri Lanka should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points

– New Zealand lose to both Australia and England and finish on a lower NRR than Bangladesh and India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower or same NRR as Bangladesh

– For Bangladesh to go through with nine points, England and Sri Lanka should lose two more matches each and Pakistan lose at least one of theirs and finish with a lower NRR than Bangladesh.

Pakistan: After an upset win against England at the start of the tournament, Pakistan lost their way in the middle before wins against South Africa and New Zealand put them back in contention. Three matches remain for them and three wins should take them to 11 points. For them to qualify on 11 points, at least one of the below events must happen:

– Both England and Sri Lanka should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points

– New Zealand lose to both Australia and England and finish on a lower or same NRR as Pakistan and India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower NRR than Pakistan

– For Pakistan to go through with nine points, England and Sri Lanka should lose two more matches each and Bangladesh lose at least one of theirs and finish with a lower NRR than Pakistan.

Sri Lanka: It was the island nation’s unexpected win over England which gave the teams in the bottom half of the table a fresh lease of life. Sri Lanka are on six points and are competing directly with England as these two sides could end up with the same points. If Sri Lanka win all their three games, they would just need England to lose at least one of their two matches, considering the hosts have more wins than Sri Lanka should a tie on points happen.

If Sri Lanka win only two out of three they would end on ten points and then they would need England to lose to both India and New Zealand and both Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one match each and finish on a maximum of nine points.

If Sri Lanka lose at least two matches, they stand eliminated.

© Cricbuzz

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